The Numbers Don’t Tell The Whole Story: Statistics, Shortcuts, and Finding My Way

Yesterday I told how I would begin a process of a “Year of Becoming Your Truest Self.” This is my Student identity’s “degree program,” in other words.

That said, I doubt it will only take a year.

At some point, I suppose I will be ready to “graduate” into some sort of new identity … or perhaps, like Bilbo Baggins, I will just hang out at a real-world version of Rivendell until it is time to pass beyond to the Western Shores. We will see.

You May be glad to know that I did not go to bed until 10:30pm last night.

As with the day before, I got started in earnest around 6:30am and was busy with my One Hit Wonders, rehearsals, strength workouts, and then personal appointments and errands until 6pm.

After getting back home at 6pm, I started cooking my second meal of the day and tried to find a shortcut to my dilemma.

“Come on, dude, you know that the real issue is where you live and when you live there. Why not just tackle that head on?”

Okay, not a bad idea. So, once again, I began looking in earnest at my options for rotating between my home and my apartment.

Now, there are some given assumptions in that analysis.

First, I am assuming I will not change my living arrangements.

Second, that I actually want to be in both places at various times of the year.

And third, that perhaps there is a “magical” number of rotations that will “spur” me to a more fulfilling lifestyle.

Obviously, any of those variables could be changed and may be adding to the issue, but let’s roll with them for now.

It had occurred to me that when I have most enjoyed traveling back and forth, I was limiting my time to around two months per stay and location.

We can Even look at this summer as An example.

I got back here roughly around June 1st, and I was full of vigor, optimism, and excitement. June was great. July was great.

Then I hit the wall in August. I began to go into Full Hermit mode. I began doubting everything about my life and why I am living it the way I am.

It dawned on me that 2024 was a much better year of Rotations.

I arrived in the PNW from the SE around January 21st. I spent a month writing new songs and working out. That was about it.

Then, around February 22–26, I took a short trip to attend a wedding. That was great. I came back, focused another month on writing new songs.

Then, I took a 4–5 day trip to visit a friend in Alaska.

In Doing so, I achieved my goal of visiting all 50 states. Great.

I basically wrote 40 new scratch demos per month, for a total of 80. Not bad.

Then I hit the wall. I basically spent the week before the trip to Alaska dragging my feet, feeling burnt out, and didn’t complete nearly as many song demos as I had.

So, I Took the trip, came back, and basically collapsed into hermit mode until I left around April 12 or so for the SE.

The pattern is evident. Now what to do about it?

I am not sure, but it seems I am on to something.

Let’s ground it in some other statistics, though, shall we? Some related, some not.

Zero

That is how much my apartment is costing me, depending on how you look at it. The investments I have earmarked to Pay for the apartment Are doing the Job Assigned.

so far this year, they have earned about exactly what I have paid in rent and other charges to maintain the place.

Of course, that money could be directed to other spending priorities, and that does matter.

However, if I subtract the capital I have devoted to paying for the apartment from my liquid portfolio, I still have 42% of my annual spending budget left to cover the remaining four months of the year.

That is significantly more than I will likely need.

One

I have lived in my current house for over 20 years. I take walks through the neighborhood pretty much every day I am here. This morning I saw a young girl, perhaps 4–5 years old, out riding her bike at around 7:15am.

Huh? I have never seen that in 20 years of walks.

My guess is that it is a grandchild visiting, but all I know is that it was an unusual occurrence.

I take it as a sign that my inner child work is going to help me find True North again.

Two

In the last week, I have come across two beautiful rabbits that have been hit by cars.

Their carcasses were lying near the edge of the road.

Then the next time I walk by, a vehicle of some sort has flattened them into mush.

Gruesome.

They were taking a risk by trying to cross a road that, even though it has a 25mph speed limit posted, is often the place where people seem to think it is 50mph.

Sometimes shortcuts don’t end well, is the message I take from those occurrences.

Duly noted. I will put it in the, “don’t assume that figuring out my rotations will yield all or even the best outcomes” file.

But sometimes you’ve got to take the risk and just cross the dang street, right?

Three

If I did two-month rotations, that would result in three round-trip cross-country drives.

Mileage on the car? Less than 16,000.

Median mileage on a vehicle? 50% above, 50% below, is about 13,100 per year.

Working males tend to have the highest average mileage, averaging a little less than 19,000 per year.

Thus, mileage is not a “real” issue. It’s a consideration, for sure, but not outrageous.

If I did one round-trip per year and then flew back and forth four times, forsaking a vehicle in one or both places for a couple of two-month visits, I would save about $125 per month, or around $3.71 per day.

But I lose a lot of independence by not having my vehicle with me on each visit. I also have to deal with TSA, packing restrictions, delayed flights, rental cars, and all that hassle.

Worth it? Eh, not sure, but probably not.

Oh, I know, put a car in each location, duplicate everything I own, and fly back and forth when ready to rotate.

Uh, yeah. Saves about $285 per month if I buy a car for around $22,000 and pay cash for it. That’s about $9.50 per day.

Under that option, I would break even in about 6.5 years.

Whoa. Worth it?

Only if I want to buy a new car and keep my current car. But, no, not this year.

And, I have a much higher price tag in mind than $22,000 when I do get the next vehicle.

It’s minimalism in action.

I have had my current car for 14 years, and I think I can easily keep it for another six without being too concerned. I keep it in tip-top shape with regular maintenance. It gets me where I want to be.

It’s 18–30 days of driving. I’ve tended to take eight days of driving round-trip, or 24 per year if I did three round-trips.

Worth it?

It could be. I have family I can stop and see en route.

Or, I could also extend the trips to be a little longer and figure out a way to play open mics in towns along the way, right?

These don’t have to be endurance marathon trips each time, do they?

Four Out of Five

This morning, I sampled another podcast that I think could be a keeper for quality research material. We will see.

It was a good episode, and the host was interviewing a man who had taken the “Fool’s” path.

He had been an enlisted officer in the military for 11 years. He decided to leave to pursue his “passions” instead of accepting the golden handcuffs of a 20-year retirement pension and other benefits.

Once enlisted officers hit 10 years of service, 80% will stay to achieve the 20-year early retirement.

He is part of the one out of five that do not stick around.

Ouch. I hope he doesn’t regret it later in life.

He was in his 30s, and I am sure was thinking that another nine years was too much of a sacrifice. He could be right. He could be wrong.

Decades fly by in a blink of an eye.

Personally, I would have tried to talk him out of leaving.

but what do I know? I am more Hermit than Fool, right?

Ninety-One

Yes, an age when you would likely be very glad to have a full pension and excellent health insurance options from a military retirement.

But that is not the type of number I have in mind here.

Evidently, according to two of the podcasts I sampled yesterday, somewhere between 91% and 92% of people who make New Year’s resolutions will give them up by February.

I checked with Google Gemini, and it said that it’s more like 80% who give them up by February, and only about 8–9% keep them for the full year.

Intuitively, that makes more sense to me.

It dawned on me that these One Hit Wonders I am currently committed to doing for a full year are the equivalent of a New Year’s resolution, right?

The only difference is that I started them one at a time, from March until July.

If those stats are right, then I am already in the 20% that keep going past the first month or two.

And, by gosh, I plan to be part of the 8–9% when this is complete.

What does all this say about my personal values?

I am sure they are reflected in these thoughts, perspectives, and ideas, right?

That will be part of where I start digging in next.

What are the most core values I hold?

I have my hunches, but I really want to dig in further.

(NOTE: All of these statistics are from either Google Gemini search results or the podcasts I mentioned. They are only meant to be directionally correct, not specifically precise.)